US Open 2024 Predictions — #19

Hello! For this issue, I thought we’d change it up from actionable advice and coaching via email to more of a community discussion on who will win the US Open.

More importantly: I want to lay out why.

I would love it if you shared your thoughts with me and your predictions—which is why I’m sending this early.

All you have to do is use that comment button at the top of the email or the one below. I’ll be hopping in and out of the comments this weekend but would love it if you all interacted.

Women’s Champion: Aryna Sabalenka

The Belurusian is difficult to look past. You’ve probably seen the recent stat that she’s averaged the highest forehand speed of all players competing at the US Open.

Ball-speed is absolutely not everything, but Sabalenka absolutely smokes the ball off both wings. I had the chance to watch her play her first round at the 2024 Australian Open, and what was the most evident to me was how much better her ball-striking skills were compared to her opponent’s.

Emma Navarro has been having a great run—but I believe she was a little lucky to make it past Coco Gauff. And I’m unsure if she can handle Sabalenka when all of her cylinders are firing.

Keep in mind that Sabalenka is also the most experienced out of the remaining contenders, oh, and she’s incredibly well-conditioned as well!

You’ll receive this email just as Sabalenka and Navarro kick off so I suppose my predictions will be tested early.

It would be fascinating to see if Jessica Pegula (if she makes it to the finals) could marshal the crowd behind her to cause an upset against Sabalenka, but I don’t think this is likely. Of course, I could be wrong.

What do you think?

Men’s Champion: Jannik Sinner

I know I’m not ruffling any feathers or making any bold claims here… but, c’mon, this guy has been playing incredibly well. Medvedev did well to keep up with his barrage. And I don’t recall anyone in recent memory who was consistently hitting the ball as well as he is now. Maybe if we go back to Stan Wawrinka in the 2014 to 2016 era? But I think Sinner is even eclipsing that level.

What more needs to be said of the Italian? He’s also adept at slightly altering his playing style based on his opponent as evidenced by the net approaches he made against Daniil Medvedev. World No.1, almost impossible to trade with off the baseline, already a Grand Slam champion, and he’s also got Darren Cahill in his corner….

However, there is Jack Draper. He’s the only player to yet drop a set this year and if we’re talking about someone who could potentially go toe-to-toe with the Italian, the Brit is your man. All I can say is: poor tennis balls.

I know I haven’t given much thought to Taylor Fritz or Frances Tiafoe, but I just think that they’ll seriously struggle against Sinner. Right now he is playing too well. I could be wrong, though, and perhaps it would be nice for an American player to win a Grand Slam on the men’s side.